Predicting History
2008.08.17 - Sunday
A great post by my friend Chris about what, more often than not, is the driving force behind the great historical course corrections. It got me to thinking, however, that while technological and scientific progress are incredibly difficult to predict, they are by no means the only movers and shakers on history's stage.
Human actions, decisions, politics, wars and so on are all of equal importance to the development of civilization. While the function and influence of some inventions is plain to all, others are only put to use properly through particular circumstances or by particular peoples. Gunpowder is ancient, but only Europeans invented the pistol, the rifle, and the cannon. Invention and technological progress are indeed impossible to predict in and of themselves, but so are those who put them to use.
9/11 should have given us, for a generation at least, the last example we needed that history is impossible to forsee. That single event has changed the course of the world dramatically and will be looked upon as such for at least hundreds of years. Its significance is enormous. Its predictability was zero. No one expected it, no one planned for it, no one imagined it. Now authors and writers and paranoid survivalists the world over are trying to imagine, trying to predict the next innovative terrorist strike. Will they succeed? I doubt it. They were all trying to do the same thing before, and we were still completely blind sided.
There are just too many variables to be able to predict anything. From David Suzuki's global warming hysteria to Mark Steyn's demographic Eurabian disaster, there is simply too much going on to say with certainty what will happen. Global warming is one or two technological inventions away from a solution, or it's one or two more years of temperature drops away from insignificance. Eurabia is the same, but instead of inventions or measurements, it's nuclear terrorists attacks, elected conservative governments, or reformed immigration laws. On the flip side, the technological "singularity" which promises an endless virtual paradise for our future minds is most likely already shattered by fundamental technological setbacks and impossibilities. Future technological progress can not be taken as magic, giving us a fantasy world where our inventions allow anything and everything to be possible. There are limitations, and these days we're running into them more than ever. Some things will be proven to be, well, flat out impossible. More than likely in all cases it will be something completely unexpected, completely unforeseen, which could render these situations utterly meaningless, or even downright laughable to future generations.
I don't mean to say that people should forget fighting to create the future they want to be a part of, but while these mostly ghastly or silly predictions of the future can be alarming or pleasing, no one has or ever will be able to put Human civilization on rails. People arguing, cooperating, and competing in politics, in science and technology, in the economic market, and so on; that is the engine of history. The only way to make sure your team wins is to get out on the field and play.
